The bomb detonated in front of the al-Hussain mosque

On February 22nd a bomb detonated in Cairo, killing a French teenager and wounding several locals and foreign tourists. Considering the history of Islamist terrorism in Egypt and its special role for Islamist ideology as a whole, the attack could be foreshadowing a new wave of violence in Egypt. By Jan Kuenzl

The crime scene, the square in front of the Al-Hussein Mosque, is a spot which probably every Cairo tourist knows. It is situated at the entrance of the famous Khan el-Khalili Bazaar. The attacks mark an abrupt end to a period of – by Egyptian measures – relative calm. The last major wave of terrorist attacks took place from 2003- 2006 in the Red Sea resorts of the Sinai Peninsula. Even though these attacks are most often referred to as Islamist in motivation, the underlying cleavages are rather ethnic than religious, considering the ongoing marginalization of the Sinai Bedouins.

The attacks of the 22nd were not very sophisticated in scope and technique, which makes it unlikely that they were carried out with a strong organisational background. Nevertheless, they show how fragile the relationship between the Egyptian state and the Islamists tends to be. This poses the question whether Egypt is on the verge of a new wave of terrorism, and of course, what implications this situation has for international politics. For such an assessment a closer look at Egypt’s domestic political system and Egypt’s mainstream Islamism, represented by the Muslim Brotherhood, is necessary.

Egypt – Cradle and Role Model of Islamism

Egypt plays a very significant role in the history and development of Islamist ideology. In 1928, the Egyptian prime school teacher Hassan al-Banna founded the first Islamist organization, called the Muslim Brotherhood. The organization soon developed an ideological framework, which could still be observed in almost all Islamist groups today. The roots of militant Jihadism lie within the Muslim Brotherhood’s history as well. Sayyid Qutb, a teacher and journalist, who was detained for several years in one of Nasser’s concentration camps and later sentenced to death in 1966, wrote the book “Milestones” which is, until today, a manifesto of radical, militant Islamism.

With certain variations, many of the stages of development of the Muslim Brotherhood took place in other Islamist groups as well: The reform-oriented beginning and the approaching opposition to the respective political establishment. The confrontation and radicalization of certain groups, in Egypt’s case most prominently the Gamaa al-Islamiyya, which led to a civil war-like scenario in Upper Egypt in the nineties. And last but not least, the separation into a small radical wing and a reformist, moderate Islamist mainstream, often non-violently seeking political participation in their countries. Bearing this role model function of Egypt’s Islamists in mind, it becomes obvious, that the Nile Country’s problems with its domestic Islamism should by no means be considered isolated. If Egypt is about to face a new wave of terrorism, it will most likely have severe ramifications for the whole Arab world and the West as well. But what are the underlying causes for the recent trend towards radicalization?

A gentlemen’s agreement between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Mubarak-Regime

Hosni Mubarak rules Egypt since 1981

The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, although formally banned, is the major opposition in the Egyptian political system. The Group is represented in Parliament with 88 “independent” MPs, has a strong influence in various professional organizations and possesses strong roots in the Egyptian society. Since the ninteen-eighties, when the Brotherhood openly distanced itself from the theories of Sayyed Qutb, its relationship to the Mubarak-Regime could be described as peaceful but fragile. Despite of regular crackdowns on the Brotherhood’s members prior to elections, the organisation is granted relative free space to expand its strong roots in the Egyptian civil society. At the same time the state’s pressure on democratic and secular opposition groups, such as the al-Ghad party of Ayman Nour, is much more severe.

This situation has had benefits for both sides: The Muslim Brotherhood was provided with the opportunity to strengthen its grip on the Egyptian society, without any serious competition. In turn they refrained from attacking the regime too harshly and moderated Egypt’s mainstream Islamism. The Mubarak-Regime benefited from the monopolized, controllable opposition of the Brotherhood on the domestic scene. Internationally, the Regime was able to prevent pressures towards democratization with the argument, that in case of such liberalizations, an Islamist government would be the likely outcome. This line of argument is very common throughout the autocracies of the Middle East and it seems that it often serves its purpose, considering the low esteem of the international community to pressure them towards liberalization.

Islamism in Egypt – On razor’s edge?

The official logo of the Muslim Brotherhood

Most certainly, the gentlemen’s agreement between the Brotherhood and the Mubarak-Regime will not last for ever. Parts of its younger generation are already questioning the moderate course of the Muslim Brotherhood because they are thinking that moderation will not lead to more opportunities for participation and influence.
Moreover, the Egyptian regime should be seen as in a phase of transition, since the reign of Hosni Mubarak is likely to end soon, due to his age. Unofficially, the question of succession seems to be decided in favour of Mubarak’s son Gamal. Such a ‘dynastic’ solution will lower the chances for a reform of the political system even further and thereby dampen the hopes of the Brotherhood to play a bigger part in Egyptian politics. This, in turn, will probably weaken the moderate forces inside the organisation and will lead to more radical approaches.

The latest bombing, even if it will turn out that it was not committed by any organized Islamist group, should remind us that there is always a possibility for an escalation of Islamist violence in Egypt. The only way to lower the chances for such a development is to liberalize the sclerotic political system and to find a way to include the moderate Islamists. At the same time, secular, democratic forces need to be provided with the opportunity to build up their organisations freely in order to establish a counterweight to religious opposition. Western governments would be well advised to do their best to support such a strategy. Considering, for example, Egypt’s status as the second biggest recipient of US financial aid worldwide, the levers are obviously available. A hint, that the Obama Administration is about to go in this direction, could be the case of Ayman Nour, who was released in February after pressure by the US.
Grated, from a geopolitical point of view the current hot spots of Islamism are rather located in Pakistan. However, this should not conceal that in the case of Egypt, there is still time to prevent the worst.

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